Approximately two months ago, the United States had less than 500 confirmed cases of Coronavirus.
It will, however, be ending the month of April with a seemingly inconceivable 1 million confirmed infections.
At the time of publishing, the statistical website, Worldometer, confirmed that the number of infections stood at over 1,000,441.
Although the weekly growth rate in infections had dropped dramatically from a worrying 900% to a fairly promising 29%, a best case scenario still presents problematic outcomes.
Using data from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering and the infection growth rate of Spain as a baseline, the best case scenario suggests that the number of infected would reach 33 million or 10% of the US population by September 2020.
The virus would have infected 230 million and killed between 14 and 22 million US Americans, by the time the US population has had enough infections to build ‘herd immunity’,
According to an article in Time magazine, ‘herd immunity’ occurs when 70% to 80% of a population is infected with a virus.
At this point, the body produces antibodies that fight the infection.
The best case scenario suggests that it would take approximately 13 months (May 2021) for 230 million US Americans to be infected before the herd immunity kicks in.
Spain has been used as a baseline due to the fact that it has the second highest number of infections and the largest number of infections as a percentage of its population size.
Over the last week, Spain had a 15% infection growth rate, down from infection growth rates of over 1000% at the beginning of March.
It has a death rate of more than 10%.
Meanwhile, in South Africa, the Western Cape has become what some have called, the United States of South Africa, but not in a good way.
Like the US has become the epicentre of the Coronavirus in the world, the Western Cape has become the epicentre in South Africa.
Despite having only half the population size of both Gauteng and Kwazulu Natal, it has the highest number of infections.
The number of infections in the Western Cape is rising at a greater rate than both Gauteng and Kwazulu Natal and reflects the general ineptitude of the DA administration that is in charge of the province.
Having opposed every measure put in place by President Ramaphosa, the Western Cape infection rates gives an indication of what would have happened had the DA been in charge.
Using the US city of Los Angeles as a baseline, had the DA’s advice been followed, the Western Cape would have had infections of more than 20 000 and deaths of more than 1000.
Similarly, South Africa would have had more than 200 000 infections and deaths of between 10 and 20 thousand.